The Rumor Mill Is Buzzing
Wall Street loves a good whisper, and lately the talk making its way across trading desks is this: could Walmart really become a $200 stock?
At first glance, it might sound far-fetched. After all, Walmart has long been seen as the steady giant of retail — predictable, reliable, even boring at times compared to high-flying tech stocks. But beneath that calm surface, the world’s largest retailer is reinventing itself in ways that could propel it into uncharted territory.
With earnings growth, a surging e-commerce business, and bold bets in advertising and fintech, Walmart is no longer just a grocery-and-general-merchandise powerhouse. It’s becoming a technology-driven retail juggernaut. And that has analysts whispering about a future where $200 per share might not be a dream, but a milestone.
Why the $200 Question Matters
For investors, the number itself is symbolic. Crossing the $200 threshold would represent a new era of valuation for Walmart, an acknowledgment that its transformation is more than cosmetic. It would signal that Walmart is being valued not just as a traditional retailer but as a modern growth company with multiple revenue engines.
But reaching that milestone will depend on several key levers, and whether they fire on all cylinders over the next two to three years.
The E-Commerce Engine: Walmart’s Real Catalyst
If there’s one factor that could truly ignite Walmart’s stock, it’s e-commerce.
For years, Walmart was seen as playing catch-up to Amazon. But the narrative is shifting. Walmart’s online sales are growing at double-digit rates, and thanks to its vast network of stores doubling as fulfillment centers, it’s solving the expensive last-mile delivery problem in a way Amazon has struggled to replicate.
Even more importantly, Walmart’s Walmart+ membership program is gaining traction. By bundling free delivery, fuel discounts, and exclusive perks, Walmart is quietly building an ecosystem that keeps shoppers loyal — the same playbook that made Amazon Prime an unstoppable force.
If Walmart can continue scaling its online presence, particularly in groceries and general merchandise, the upside for revenue and margins could be enormous.
Advertising: The Hidden Profit Machine
Here’s what many casual investors don’t realize: Walmart is sitting on a gold mine with Walmart Connect, its advertising arm.
With more than 240 million customers shopping across its physical and digital platforms every week, Walmart owns one of the most valuable troves of consumer data on the planet. Brands are paying big bucks to get in front of those customers, and advertising revenue is growing faster than retail sales.
Why does this matter? Because advertising dollars are high-margin revenue. For a company like Walmart, where grocery sales keep margins thin, advertising could be the lever that meaningfully boosts profitability. Some analysts believe this business alone could be worth tens of billions if spun off or valued separately.
If Walmart Connect keeps scaling, it could be one of the biggest reasons the stock earns a higher valuation multiple.
Fintech, Healthcare, and Beyond: Walmart’s Wild Cards
Beyond retail and ads, Walmart is experimenting with new businesses that could add entirely new growth layers.
- Fintech: Walmart has partnered with fintech firms to offer banking services, aiming to capture the millions of Americans underserved by traditional banks. If it succeeds, this could create a sticky ecosystem around everyday financial needs.
- Healthcare: With its clinics and partnerships, Walmart is dipping its toes into the massive healthcare market. While still early, the potential is huge.
- International Markets: Walmart is finding success in markets like Mexico, Canada, and parts of Asia, proving its model isn’t confined to U.S. borders.
These may not drive revenue overnight, but they’re long-term optionality plays that could surprise on the upside.
The Case for $200
So, what would it actually take for Walmart to hit $200 per share?
- Sustained Earnings Growth → Walmart needs to keep posting mid-to-high single-digit earnings growth, driven by e-commerce and advertising margins.
- Multiple Expansion → Investors must begin valuing Walmart less like a traditional retailer and more like a tech-enabled platform. That shift could justify a richer P/E ratio.
- Execution Consistency → Walmart can’t afford major missteps in supply chain, inflation management, or international expansion.
Add these together, and $200 doesn’t look impossible — especially if the broader retail market stays resilient.
The Bearish Counterpoint
Of course, not everyone is convinced. Skeptics point out that Walmart still makes most of its money from low-margin groceries, and while advertising is promising, it’s still a fraction of total revenue.
They also argue that competition remains fierce, not just from Amazon but from dollar stores, discount chains, and even Costco. Inflation, wage pressures, and potential regulatory hurdles could also weigh down margins.
In other words, Walmart may be evolving, but it’s still a retailer at heart — and retailers rarely get tech-style valuations.
Forward-Looking Scenarios
Let’s imagine a few paths for Walmart:
- Bullish Case ($200 achieved): E-commerce keeps growing 20%+ annually, Walmart Connect advertising becomes a multi-billion-dollar powerhouse, and earnings growth pushes valuation higher.
- Base Case ($180–190 range): Walmart continues steady growth, but valuation caps upside. Stock grinds higher but doesn’t explode.
- Bearish Case ($150 or lower): Inflationary pressures and competition squeeze margins, slowing growth and killing momentum.
What This Means for Investors
If you’re an investor, the real question isn’t whether Walmart hits $200 tomorrow — it’s whether the company’s transformation story is strong enough to justify owning the stock for the next 5+ years.
For long-term investors, Walmart represents a blend of stability and innovation. It won’t match the rocket-ship trajectory of a small-cap AI stock, but its mix of predictable cash flows and emerging growth businesses could make it one of the most balanced plays in the market.
Humanizing the Whisper
Behind all the Wall Street chatter and valuation debates, there’s a human story too. Walmart is trying to serve everyday families better — delivering groceries faster, offering financial services to the underserved, and giving advertisers smarter ways to reach real people.
In a world where trust in institutions is shaky, Walmart’s ability to connect with ordinary consumers may be its most underrated strength. If it can keep that trust while building out futuristic business models, the whispers about $200 might one day turn into headlines.
Final Word
So, is Walmart the next $200 stock? Nobody can say for sure. But what’s clear is that the company is evolving faster than most give it credit for.
If e-commerce growth accelerates, if advertising margins keep climbing, and if new businesses like fintech and healthcare gain traction, the stock’s ceiling could be much higher than investors once imagined.
For now, analysts may whisper. But in a few years, if Walmart keeps executing, they might be shouting: “Walmart at $200 — and climbing.”