The Rise of an Unexpected Giant
When most people think of Walmart, they picture sprawling stores, low grocery prices, and the classic “everyday low prices” slogan. But in 2025, something else is stealing the spotlight: advertising.
Walmart’s advertising arm, Walmart Connect, just reported a staggering 46% growth year-over-year, a number that surprised even seasoned analysts. For a company already operating at colossal scale, that’s not just strong growth—it’s transformative.
The burning question now: Can Walmart really rival Amazon in the lucrative world of digital advertising?
Why Advertising Is the New Gold Rush
Retail media networks—like Walmart Connect, Amazon Ads, and Target’s Roundel—are suddenly one of the hottest profit engines in business. Why? Because these retailers have what every brand craves: shoppers, data, and intent.
When someone searches on Google, you know they’re curious. But when someone searches for “organic peanut butter” on Walmart.com, you know they’re seconds away from making a purchase. That difference makes retail media uniquely powerful—and uniquely profitable.
For Walmart, this isn’t a side hustle. It’s shaping up to be a multi-billion-dollar business with high margins, scalability, and a direct line to consumer goods brands desperate for visibility.
46% Growth: What It Really Means
A 46% jump in advertising sales isn’t just a headline—it’s a shift in Walmart’s identity.
- Margin lifter: Traditional retail runs on razor-thin profit margins, often just 2–4%. Advertising, however, delivers margins that can soar above 70%. That’s why Wall Street is paying attention.
- Investor confidence: This level of growth suggests Walmart is executing with precision, not just experimenting.
- Competitive positioning: A nearly 50% leap signals Walmart isn’t content to sit in Amazon’s shadow—it’s gunning for market share.
For investors, this means the Walmart story is no longer just about groceries and foot traffic. It’s about building a tech-driven profit machine.
Amazon Ads: The Benchmark
Amazon Ads currently commands roughly $45 billion in annual revenue, making it the third-largest digital advertising platform in the world, behind Google and Meta. Walmart is nowhere near that scale yet—but here’s the kicker: it doesn’t need to be.
If Walmart can even capture a fraction of Amazon’s ad dominance, it would reshape its financial profile. Analysts estimate Walmart’s ad revenue is now approaching $4–5 billion annually, and with growth like this, $10 billion may not be far off.
That kind of money would not only supercharge profits but also cement Walmart as more than a retailer—it would make it a serious player in the digital economy.
Why Walmart Has a Real Shot
Skeptics might argue Walmart will never catch Amazon. And maybe that’s true. But Walmart has unique advantages that Amazon can’t replicate:
- Physical stores as ad assets – With over 10,500 stores globally, Walmart can blend digital ads with in-store promotions, creating omnichannel campaigns Amazon simply can’t offer.
- Grocery dominance – Walmart’s leadership in grocery shopping means advertisers for everyday essentials—from cereal to shampoo—see Walmart as the perfect gateway to buyers.
- First-party data – Walmart’s millions of weekly customers give it rich insights into real-world behavior. Brands love this because it’s data you can’t get from cookie tracking or generic clicks.
- Trusted value brand – For advertisers targeting middle America, Walmart is ground zero. It reaches communities Amazon hasn’t fully penetrated.
Put simply: Walmart isn’t trying to be Amazon. It’s carving out its own empire with its unique strengths.
What This Means for the Stock
Investors love growth stories. But they love profitable growth stories even more.
With advertising margins dwarfing traditional retail, this new revenue stream could become Walmart’s secret weapon in boosting earnings per share. Imagine if ad revenue rises from $5 billion today to $10–15 billion in the next few years. That incremental profit could:
- Justify a higher stock multiple.
- Provide resilience in downturns (ads are stickier than discretionary sales).
- Create a narrative that Walmart isn’t just a defensive stock—it’s a growth stock too.
If Wall Street buys into that narrative, Walmart’s long-debated march toward $200 per share may happen faster than expected.
The Forward-Looking Story: Can Walmart Scale?
The next few years will be decisive. Here are the growth levers that could push Walmart Connect to rival Amazon Ads:
- Expanding into video ads – Imagine ad placements not just on Walmart.com but across streaming partnerships and smart TVs in stores.
- AI-driven personalization – Using artificial intelligence to match ads with shopper intent could drive better conversion rates for brands.
- Global rollout – Walmart’s presence in Mexico, Canada, and India offers fertile ground for retail media expansion.
- Partnerships with brands – The more Procter & Gamble, Nestlé, and Unilever allocate budget toward Walmart ads, the faster growth compounds.
If Walmart can scale these levers, advertising might be the crown jewel of its 2030 playbook.
Risks Investors Should Watch
Of course, no growth story is risk-free.
- Competition from Amazon – Amazon isn’t standing still; it’s pushing deeper into ads, video, and Prime Video integrations.
- Ad fatigue – If Walmart pushes too many ads, customers might find the shopping experience less enjoyable.
- Execution challenges – Running an ad business isn’t the same as running a retail empire. Walmart must attract top ad-tech talent to keep pace.
- Economic slowdowns – If brands cut ad spending during recessions, Walmart’s ad growth could stall.
Still, the risks look manageable compared to the upside.
The Bigger Picture
Here’s the most exciting part: Walmart doesn’t have to “beat” Amazon to win. It just has to become the best version of itself in retail media. Even if Amazon stays the dominant giant, Walmart could still build a $15–20 billion ad business.
That would give Walmart a profit engine that rivals entire Fortune 500 companies—layered on top of its already unmatched retail scale.
Final Thoughts
Walmart’s 46% surge in advertising growth isn’t just a quarterly highlight. It’s a signal of where the company is headed. The retail titan is no longer content to live off groceries and foot traffic—it wants a bigger slice of the digital economy.
Can it rival Amazon Ads? Maybe not tomorrow. But with its unique mix of physical stores, grocery dominance, and first-party shopper data, Walmart has everything it needs to become a retail media powerhouse.
For investors, this is more than a side story. It’s potentially the next major profit driver for a company that’s already proven it can adapt and thrive in any economic climate.
If Walmart keeps executing at this pace, its advertising business might just transform it from a defensive staple into one of Wall Street’s most compelling growth plays of the decade.
And that’s the story behind the 46% growth headline: Walmart is quietly reinventing itself, one ad click at a time.